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Pure Monetary Theory of Business Cycle from Managerial Economics

Sunday, April 18, 2010

According to Prof. R. G. Hawtrey, a British economist, there is direct relationship between volume of money supply and the economic activity. Wherever there is change in the flow of money or money supply changes, there will be business fluctuations. Here, he means the credit creation by the banking system i.e., expansion in bank credit leads to demand and so the upswing of business cycle starts. On the other hand, when there is decrease in money supply through contraction of bank credit, it leads to down swing and thus leads to depression.

Expansion of bank credit happens when interest rates are reduced, which means, the loans are cheaper. Due to liberal loans, the profit margins change as they are very sensitive to the change in interest rate.

Thus, investment increases and so the employment, which in turn increase the income and demand. This increase in demand leads to increase in price and profit margins. Therefore, the upward trends start i.e., the upswing starts. But as each phase has the germs of other phase, the turning point starts. When bank changes its policy of credit expansion, the cash reserve with the bank reduces.

The leading rates are increased to discourage the demand for fresh loans and they start calling to return loans. The producers start disposing off their stock to repay loans. The restricted policy on credit and high rate of interest discourages a new investment, which leads to downswing. The income falls and cash starts coming back to the bank. But as the cash reserve with the bank improves, again the bank starts using liberal attitude towards credit creation and so the revival starts. This takes the economy to expansion or prosperity. According to R G Hawtrey flow of money supply is the sole cause for business fluctuations. This theory was not unchallenged. Some limitations are –

Business cycle is a very complex phenomenon and we cannot attribute it completely to credit creation by banking system.

Bank plays an important role in the financing of business but it cannot be the only reason for business crisis. It can just aggravate the situation.

Too much of importance is given to bank credit. Many times traders don’t borrow from bank but plough back their profit.

Investment not only depends on interest rates but on the rate of return also. Hawtrey has totally ignored MEC.

This theory has totally ignored the non monetary factors like innovation, climatic conditions, psychological factors etc.

This theory also has been taken from business cycle chapter of Managerial Economics SMU MBA MB0026 book in the continuation of Over-Investment theory and Schumpeter theory.
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Over-Investment Theory of Business Cycle from Managerial Economics

Monday, April 12, 2010

A.F. Hayek assumes economy in equilibrium. Whenever this equilibrium is disturbed then there is expansion or contraction. This theory says that when the economy is in equilibrium, the rate of interest is such that Saving = Investment there is no unemployed resources.

Suppose the bank credit expansion takes place, then the equilibrium rate of interest is disturbed. This low market rate of interest will tempt the businessmen to borrow more and invest in new ventures. This leads to upswing in business cycle; as a result employment, output, profit and demand increases.

But then this phase does not continue indefinitely. Due to scarcity of resources, this expansion phase cannot go on and on. But due to increase in price, the people are forced to decrease consumption and start saving more. This forced saving due to high price makes the bank ease credit and investment starts.

The economy comes out of its downswing as income increases and people revert to earlier consumption and expenditure levels. This helps economy to recover and the upswing starts again. This theory says that the over investment due to forced saving by people in inflation is the cause of fluctuations in economic activities. Hayek says, voluntary saving leads to change in structure of production permanently but forced saving brings changes which are not permanent.

The limitations for this theory are –

Assumption of full employment is unrealistic.

Undue importance is given to bank’s rate of interest. Even if the rates of interest are constant, there will be variation in production when the business stars getting profits.

We already have discussed about Schumpeter theory of business cycle. This theory was also not complete just like Over-Investment theory of business cycle. A.F. Hayek assumes about the Over-Investment theory of business cycle. He sees only one aspect just like Joseph Schumpeter. There are also many disabilities in Hayek’s Over-Investment theory.
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Schumpeter Theory of Business Cycle in Managerial Economics

Monday, April 5, 2010

Joseph Schumpeter has explained the expansion and contraction through industrial innovation. Innovation is an actual application invention; whereas invention is discovery of something new.

Invention converts into innovation. In this theory, the innovation can be introduction of new product, market source of raw material, opening of new market in business. An entrepreneur is an innovator, he has the knowledge to do something new, daring and foresight to go ahead of others and in this process he demands funds from banking system. Now, we will examine how innovation causes business fluctuations. In this theory, Schumpeter says, any innovation causes business fluctuations. In this theory, Schumpeter says, any innovation can move the economy to disequilibrium from equilibrium and this will continue till the new equilibrium position is reached. Let us say the innovation is the introduction of a new product in a full employment economy.

The new industry has to reward heavily the existing factors of production to attract them. The new industry is financed by bank credit. As the factors of new industry get higher rewards, their purchasing power increases and the demand of old industry product increases, as the new product is yet to come in the market.

Therefore the demand and production of old products increases. The old industry will now take credit from bank for expansion. In the mean while, the new product comes to the market. Due to novelty, there is decrease in the demand for old products. The old industry starts cutting down on production, therefore the income to factors of production decreases. As a result, the demand for old and new product decreases. Due to more and more joblessness the vicious circle of deflation starts and the economy gets into down swing. So, this theory says that the economic fluctuations are due to innovation in the industry.

This theory was challenged and limitations are –

The full employment assumption is unrealistic.

Bank is not the only source of finance for every innovation in business.

Many times the profits are ploughed back to finance innovations.

Innovation cannot be the sole cause of business cycle.

The chapter has been introduced in the continuation of phase of business cycle.

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